Dale City, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS61 KLWX 300201
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
901 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes southward through the region this evening
into the night. High pressure briefly builds back into the area
late tonight into Thursday, allowing winds to decrease across
the area. Widespread soaking rainfall arrives late Thursday
night through Friday as a wave of low pressure and cold front
push through. High pressure returns for the first half of the
weekend before a warm front passes through on Sunday. Another
frontal system approaches from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Recent aircraft soundings in the metro areas still show a decent
amount of boundary layer mixing despite it being 3 to 4 hours
after dark. While a brunt of the strongest winds have concluded,
residual gusts to around 20 to 30 mph are possible before
midnight. A cold front just north of the Mason-Dixon Line is
expected to track through overnight before dissipating to the
southeast.

For tonight, winds will continue to weaken with time. Residual
rain/snow showers along the Allegheny Front should subside by
midnight. Forecast lows are expected to drop into the mid/upper
20s for most, with upper teens to low 20s across the
Alleghenies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to influence the region on Thursday,
resulting in light southerly flow and mostly clear skies with more
normal temperatures for this time of year.

An area of low pressure will approach from the west late Thursday
night. Rain will likely persist for most of the area through the day
on Friday. Cannot rule out some sleet late Thursday night for areas
out west for an hour or two but it will likely be pretty localized
given the temperature profiles.

Rainfall amounts for the period will be around half an inch to an
inch. These amounts may shift depending on the track of the low
pressure. Given the snowpack along the Allegheny Front coupled with
the expected rainfall amounts, a Flood Watch has been issued for
Garrett, MD and western Grant county in WV during the day on Friday.
Highs on Friday will be above average, with low to mid 50s expected
for the lower elevations and mid to upper 40s along the Allegheny
Front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Synoptically, not looking at too many big weather features in the
extended period due to zonal upper level flow and strong jetstream
energy remaining across the northern half of the CONUS. This will
keep any substantial cold air out of the region as well as pushing
the storm track to the north.

Brief high pressure will build south from the Great Lakes region
Saturday in the wake of the departing cold front. As a result,
expect clearing skies and breezy conditions. Temperatures will fall
back close to seasonal normals with highs outside the mountains in
the upper 30s and low to mid 40s. Locations south of Washington DC
could push 50 degrees. High pressure will slide east from the
northern Great Lakes into northern New England Saturday night into
Sunday.

Meanwhile, low pressure will eject east from the northern
Plains/upper Midwest into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday
night. This will send a warm front through the region Sunday leading
to increased cloud cover and warming temperatures. Highs Sunday will
rise into the mid to upper 40s (even in the mountains). By Monday,
these values climb into the upper 50s and low 60s as a result of
increased south/southeasterly flow. Cloudy skies Sunday will give
way to partly sunny skies Monday afternoon as the front continues
north of the area.

The trailing cold front looks to cross the area Tuesday before 1032-
1034 mb high pressure returns by the middle of next week.
Precipitation will remain limited with each of these fronts as the
overall lift/moisture source remains north of the area. Highs
Tuesday will fall back into the mid to upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. Lower CIGs are
expected as rain moves in late Thursday night through Friday. Rain
and lower CIGs should clear by late Friday night with a return to
VFR expected.

Wind gusts have slowed reduced in strength this evening,
although a few gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible during
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, winds become southerly
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with a few gusts of 15 to
20 knots possible. Winds will shift from southwest Friday to
northwest Friday night with additional gusts of 15 to 25 knots
likely. LLWS is possible Thursday night as a LLJ strengthens
overhead in WAA.

Sub-VFR conditions remain possible early Saturday as the cold front
departs the region. VFR conditions will return late morning into the
afternoon as brief high pressure settles back over the area.
Northwesterly winds will continue to gusts up to 20kts Saturday
afternoon before diminishing Saturday night. Winds will change back
to the south and southwest as a warm front lifts toward the area
Sunday. The front may bring a return of sub-VFR ceilings to the
terminals Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, the
front will lift back to the north before waffling back across the
area by the middle of next week. Precipitation remains limited at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
With gale conditions over, Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for portions of the waters through around midnight. Winds become
lighter overnight, then shift to southerly by after dusk on
Thursday. An increase in winds is possible as early as Thursday
evening, with a steadier uptick in winds Friday as winds turn
southwest ahead of an approaching storm system. This storm
system will bring rain Friday, and a wind shift to the northwest
Friday night.

Small Craft Advisories may continue for portions of the waters
Saturday in gusty northwesterly flow. Winds will lighten Saturday
evening and night as high pressure moves overhead. High pressure
will lift out of the region Sunday as a warm front crosses the
waters. Winds will become south to southeasterly as a result of the
front lifting through. Additional SCAs may be needed for portions of
the waters during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
     Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
     for MDZ001.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MDZ501.
VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VAZ503.
WV...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
     for WVZ501.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO/EST
NEAR TERM...BRO/DHOF/ADM
SHORT TERM...DHOF/ADM
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/ADM/EST
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/ADM/EST